The cbot soybean prices fell 8.3%, wheat futures fell 22%, and corn futures but also with a 40% drop in years the biggest decline in global commodity.Based on the international agricultural commodities prices compared to the overall downward trend judgment,spiral steel pipes 1200mm diameter domestic pork market overall supply is relatively abundant, year-on-year will still low pork prices in the coming months.In particular, since the fourth quarter of 2013, CPI growth slowing, pork prices have also recently appeared anti-season fell, January dropped 4% in the first three weeks.Given the current pig CunLanLiang still remain high, pork supply does not have obvious fluctuations, is expected in the first quarter of 2014 pork prices will remain weak.Based on the analysis, the first quarter of 2014 year-on-year CPI may be lower than 2.5%, the individual may even fall below 2% in September.
In addition to the pork price out back, the weak economic recovery is also considered important cause of the current CPI rise slowed.Newly released according to the China federation of logistics and purchasing, 1 month China manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) is 50.5%,MS seamless elbow 2 sch 40 than fell 0.5% last month, fell for a second consecutive month.The state council development research center, zhang liqun, a researcher thinks, that bodes ill for the future economic growth will be slightly reduced stability.In January, at the same time the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.4%, down 1.2% month-on-month and dropped for the fourth straight month.Vice President of China federation of logistics and purchasing Cai Jin think, this is mainly affected by seasonal factors, but the service order demand shrunk, weaker prices need to pay attention to.China's macro economy information network research, researchers said Yang Caiyong future although food prices will continue to rise, but under the background of the downward pressure on economic growth is bigger, the inflation situation would be in a controllable range.
Look from current trends, multiple agencies to prepare revised down prices forecast for 2014.Sealand securities,carbon steel pipe fitting hot formed bend said January year-on-year CPI is expected to further downside compared with December.Look at all the year round, the CPI value center is expected to be controlled at 3% or lower levels, provide a bigger space for resource price reforms.If you have related policy, non-food prices there will be a rebound.But the combination of the output gap changes, the first half of the CPI upward trend will remain, but the starting point of the decline is likely to make further revised down.
